Good evening folks
A tough looking Saturday. I have spent since 7am mulling boat loads of form/angles and found some of the races very tricky with any number of winners so just the one more for tomorrow is below, along with the one’s already sent and their write up’s.
3:50 Doncaster
SIROBBIE– 1/2 Pt Each way @ 14/1 3 places generally
Ian Williams has an affinity with his favourite Doncaster track and Sirobbie can go well. He caught my eye at Newbury LTO but it is the fitting of 1st time blinkers which was the clinching angle. Since 2014, Williams has fitted JUST 5 hurdlers with blinkers, 2 of them won and 3 placed!
Robbie gets that treatment today instead of his usual visor so I’m hoping the angle pays dividends again.
1:15 Kelso
HALF SHOT– 1/2 Pt Each way @ 16/1 3 places Paddy Power & Betfred, 14/1 3 places BetUK, 12/1 3 places generally
This ex-Irish nine-year-old has run consistently well for new trainer Iain Jardine this season, winning at Sedgefield in October and Musselburgh in November and, while put up 6lb for the latter victory, he has run very respectably since on the same course over two-and-a-half miles, finishing third to Minella Drama and Coopers Cross (both subsequent winners) on New Years Day and then second to the progressive Notlongtillmay subsequently.
On both those occasions, Half Shot travelled well, then got a bit outpaced before keeping on, and the stiff finish at Kelso (compared to the very flat Musselburgh) over an extra furlong and a half should play to his strengths with Gavin Sheehan an interesting booking to help take advantage of a more recent 2lb drop in the ratings.
Given that Minella Drama is now rated 9lb higher and Cooper Cross is up 5lb, the selection does look potentially well weighted.
1:50 Kelso Saturday
EL MUCHACHO – 1/2 Pt Each way @ 33/1 5 generally
THEREISNODOUBT – 1/2 Pt Each way @ 50/1 5 places generally
Two big priced plays against the field, both have been very well backed. From the foot of the weights Thereisnodoubt is getting no longer and really could do with softer ground but his form ties in with a lot of these and it has rained on watered going so hopefully there is enough juice for him to be involved at the finish.
Milton Harris very rarely comes here and his improving 6 year old has impressed with his tenacious attitude and he too can go very well.
3:25 Newbury
BLACK POPPY– 1.25 Pt Each way @ 6/1 Will Hill, 11/2 generally
This horse beat Straw Fan Jack in a thrilling finish last year after travelling well and he reinforced his liking for Newbury next time out when splitting Mark Of Gold and Irish Hill, where he was beaten just a nose and was coming back at the winner at the line.
Mark Of Gold is now rated 139 having won three times since, while Irish Hill, beaten eight lengths by Black Poppy, has won four times since and is now rated 134.
Black Poppy is up just 2lb to 119 having tried fences and 2m4f over hurdles in just two starts since the good Newbury run, neither suiting, and both efforts came when Lee’s yard were struggling for winners.
She is firing on all cylinders now having had nine winners at 27% this year and Black Poppy rates my best bet of the weekend.
3:35 Kelso
EMPIRE STEEL – 3/4 Pt Win @ 9/1 Boost William Hill, 17/2 & 8/1 generally
Tipped the last twice, let’s hope it’s 3rd time lucky back going left handed on his favourite track.
He boast form figures of 1,1,2 here and with doubts over his rivals could take advantage if anywhere near back to his best.