Good evening folks
A tough day as Cheltenham looms. Two further selections below along with the one’s already sent and their write up’s. Nothing more for Saturday, update on Sunday.
3:20 Ayr
GINGER MAIL– 1.5 Pt Win @ 4/1 William Hill, 7/2 generally
Running in better class races, this impressive C & D winner holds the favourite on that run and should go close!
5:00 Wolverhampton
ALICEFROMUMBRIDGE– 1/2 Pt Each way @ 36/1 4 places William Hill, 33/1 4 places generally
A massive value play IMO. Jockey had a winner at Kempton in the week and her form ties in nicely with these.
1:30 Wolverhampton
SIR ROBIN– 1 Pt Each way @ 7/1 4 places William Hill, 13/2 Betvictor 6/1 3 places generally
4 year old’s have a great record in this and the son El Kabeir (USA) looks set to run a big race IMO. He is a very strong traveller and has the perfect draw to sit and stalk before being unleashed on this fast track. The trainer/jockey combo team up well here and have had 3 winners, 4 placers in C & D handicap’s to date so I expect a very bold showing from this improving horse!
2:05 Wolverhampton
MR PROFESSOR– 1/2 Pt Each way @ 22/1 4 places William Hill, 18/1 4 places generally
OUTBREAK – 1 Pt Win @ 8/1 generally
Outbreak impressed my LTO at Lingfield, winning over that C & D in over 2 seconds faster than the favourite in this. Atzeni is a perfect 2 from 2 for the trainer and this prominent racer should go very well.
Mr Profeesor is the sort of 4 year old I like. He was a classy 2 year old then rather went missing in his 3 year old campaign, despite some good runs. Kevin Stott is an eye-catching booking for this small yard (could have rode a few of these) and I thought he could outrun his odds with his fitness advantage.
2:25 Sandown
KNICKERBOCKERGLORY– 1/2 Pt Each way @ 25/1 6 places William Hill, 22/1 6 places LivescoreBet, 22/1 generally
Is a big price and is being underestimated in the betting IMO as he looks to take a leaf out of our recent tip and Betfair Hurdle winner Aucunrisque’s book in switching back to hurdles from novice chasing in search of a valuable pot.
Just like Aucunrisque, Knickerbockerglory has made a bright start to life over the larger obstacles but with his mark rising to 133 in that sphere, it’s no surprise to see connections looking to capitalise on his slightly lower rating here (129).
He was dead progressive when last seen jumping hurdles too, winning three of his last four starts at this discipline, and the son of Fame And Glory has a clear preference for deeper conditions as well.
His lifetime form on right-handed tracks reads 211311 so while the good recent chasing form has come going left-handed, he could be even happier getting back on an anti-clockwise course, while the booking of Tristan Durrell to take off an extra 5lb in the saddle looks a clever move given the likely conditions if the inspection is passed.
KELLEHAN– 1/2 Pt Each way @ 33/1 6 places LivescoreBet, 35/1 5 places Coral, 33/1 5 places generally
A multiple winner on the Flat in Germany and France, the six-year-old has made a bright start to his hurdling career, confirming the promise of his first two runs when scoring on seasonal reappearance at Bangor in November.
He has since run a couple of sound races, despite being a beaten favourite in both, and appeals as the type to appreciate a strongly-run handicap over two miles.
He’s set to race off the same mark as when second in a seven-runner handicap at Wetherby two outings ago when he looked in need of a stiffer test or stronger gallop at the trip and softer ground.
German breds love hock deep ground and his galloping style suggests he too will.
He should get that at Sandown on Saturday and his low weight will be an advantage in what threatens to be a long slog up the home straight in gruelling ground. It’s not going to be a race for the faint-hearted.
2:40 Wolverhampton
VADREAM– 1/2 Pt Each way @ 17/2 4 places Bet365, 10/1 3 places 8/1 generally
Tricky but talented customer who could reward each-way support. She seldom wins, but she has mixed it in good company and was beaten only four lengths in the British Champions Sprint at Ascot last backend.
She finished with a wet sail when second at this longer trip at Lingfield last month, and is almost certainly in good heart.
I would not usually be in a rush to take on the top four in this race, but each of them looks vulnerable in their own way and I thought she was a viable each way play with Group 1 form in the bag, fitness guaranteed and getting the 5lb allowance.