Good afternoon folks
I have struggled today which is not usually the case but some of the races seem impossible so not throwing points away for the sake of it is sensible IMO.
A lot of the races are very tough and with the varying forecasts again very tricky. The summer jumpers I like need top of the ground and some sites have said up to 14mm of rain could fall which would drastically change things and it is flat season.
We need some for a couple of ours at Newbury so fingers crossed.
With that, just the one further selection is as below, along with the one’s already sent and their write up’s. Nothing more to follow this evening, I will have the usual early morning look to see what happens weather wise and a fresher pair of eyes. I may not come up with anything though but will update either way.
5:05 Ripon
YOUNG FIRE – 1/2 Pt EW @ 11/1 5 places Skybet, 11/1 4 places generally
Very unlucky LTO, should get his forecast softer conditions. Last winning jockey back in the plate and with the O’Meara yard now firing them in worth chancing.
2:35 Curragh
NO MORE PORTER – 1/2 Pt EW @ 16/1 5 places generally
Loves this track (2 wins, 7 places from 10 runs) with a lot of very solid efforts. Give in the ground is the key and he has recorded form figures of 1,2,3 over C &
D. Apparently well drawn on past running’s, so I am expecting a big effort from him.
2:25 Newbury
ZINC WHITE – 3/4 Pt EW @ 18/1 boost 5 places William Hill, 16/1 5 places generally
Very impressive 2 runs back at Chester, he beat out of sight Novel Legend who is 2nd fav at time of writing yet a 3rd of the price! And that form has worked out very well.
The Ascot races over 2m 4f+ have been an excellent guide to this but the ground was too quick, he was drawn in the car park in stall 19 but made a nice move on home turn before predictably fading.
Ian Williams is mustard with his stayers, in fact, he has won 2 of the last 3 running’s of this and the icing on the cake is the booking of Jim Crowley (rides this track well and is in cracking form) who was on for both those wins and since 2019 he has ridden 4 winners from ONLY 5 mounts (80% Win Strike rate) which is exceptional by any ones standard!
He does need juice in the ground, but Newbury is forecast rain, and if getting it (fingers crossed) I think his style of racing for this track is ideal and I expect a bold showing from this striking Grey!
3:00 Newbury
EHRAZ – 1/2 Pt EW @ 11/1 5 places Bet365 & Skybet, 10/1 4 places generally
4 year old’s have a decent record in this and this son of Showcasing is a horse I like a lot, ever since I saw him run over C & D last May when most unlucky. Richard Hannon has won 2 of the last 5 running’s (1 of them with Jim Crowley on for Shadwell Racing) and Ehraz is a strong traveller that looks well berthed to track the likely decent pace. 1st time blinkers is another positive, as long as they do not light him up, and if not, I feel he can run a big race.
3:35 Newbury
BEENHAM – 1/2 Pt EW @ 24/1 5 places Bet365, 25/1 4 places Bet365, 22/1 & 20/1 4 places generally
Millman likes to target this race and has gone close a few time. He won the race in 2019 with Bettys Hope, who was having her sixth start and completing a hat-trick on the day and although this filly is relatively inexperienced, I loved her novice win on an easy surface second time out at Goodwood in early-May. She had Group placed Haatem (now rated 102) in behind that day comfortably beat.
That came on the back of an encouraging debut third at Bath the previous month and I’m willing to forgive her the subsequent disappointment when never a factor in York’s Marygate. The fast five furlongs on good to firm ground just caught her out on that occasion, as did racing away from the action on the wing, her stall nine of nine draw not exactly helping given the winner made all from one, and they’ve had plenty of time to freshen her up for this if it is indeed the intention to run. That form has been given a massive boost last weekend with Persian Dreamers victory at HQ.
The Goodwood form isn’t on a par with those who went to the Royal meeting but it’s not bad by any stretch, the third and fifth (Call Glory) winning since and the fourth tried in Group company in France albeit without much joy.
Beenham is highly likely to stay further than the minimum trip in time the majority of Super Sprint winners end up running over – and improving for – further by the end of the season (the last five certainly have) so possessing a bit of stamina isn’t a bad thing on such a galloping track. Oisin Murphy has been booked to ride and the has a cracking record for the stable, especially over this 5 furlong trip (3 wins, 4 placers from 8 mounts past 3 years) so I thought worth chancing in a very tricky contest.