Good afternoon folks
No good thus far, some tricky races to work out for me and results. I won’t be getting anywhere near to using the pot of 50 points and this is the reason why these festivals (which I ALWAYS generally do well at) are kept separate but we cannot change the weather and it seems one of those years, 2nd guessing. We are going well though so no panic.
It’s a war of attrition and looks like it’s going to be one of those meetings that seem unfathomable, hopefully not with a golden highway. Unsure why our jockey in the last came off the rail? Do they not watch the racing?
Nothing more to follow on a tough looking 3 year old runners day.
1:50 Goodwood
BALTIC VOYAGE – 3/4 Pt EW @ 20/1 Bet365, 18/1 drifting generally
GOLDSBOROUGH – 1/2 Pt Win @ 33/1 Bet365, 28/1 drifting generally
Baltic Voyage, This well-bred son of Frankel has seemingly been a source of frustration for connections as he ran four times without success as a juvenile before being gelded over the winter.
However, his two-year-old efforts included a very decent fourth in York’s Convivial Maiden, in which 2000 Guineas second Hi Royal was third, and a staying-on fourth to recent Bahrain Trophy winner and St Leger contender Castle Way in a Newmarket nursery.
Beckett was always likely to get the best out of him at some stage this time around and, following a couple of attempts over a mile and a half at York and Salisbury, the return to 10 furlongs on his favoured soft ground sparked the improvement in North Yorkshire last time.
I’m not going to hold the fact he beat largely exposed handicappers that day against him as he fairly bolted up and I reckon that sort of experience against older horses might just stand him in good stead up 6lb back against the three-year-olds in a race that won’t be for the faint-hearted.
With stable jockey Rob Hornby on Promoter, Beckett has turned to Hollie Doyle, who has yet to ride for the yard this season but has had two winners from eight rides for Beckett over the years, plus a second, a third, and two fourths to boot.
Goldsborough is also interesting on handicap Debut given he bolted up here over 1mile on soft ground.
3:35 Goodwood
CAERNARFON – 1/2 Pt EW @ 22/1 generally
CAERNARFON’s overall body of work is all that far behind the big two here.
Granted, her win strike-rate reads just 2-10 to this point and she’s yet to break through as a three-year-old after ending last term with a Listed triumph at Newmarket (soft), but that doesn’t tell the whole story as she was a running-on fourth in the 1000 Guineas and then ran a blinder in the Oaks when not quite seeing out the trip
Last time she was beaten three lengths by the boys in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot, despite the fast ground not playing to her strengths, and Thursday will be the first time she’s ever run over 10 furlongs on soft which looks just about her ideal conditions based on what we’ve seen so far.
Caernarfon has been held onto in her three starts this season but was ridden more prominently on a few occasions at two and Connor Beasley might look to change things up again, with little early pace on in the Nassau. He won’t want to give the French raider a massive tactical advantage, put it that way, and providing she’s close enough turning in I reckon she’ll give a very good account
4:45 Goodwood
ALPHA CRUCIS – 3/4 Pt EW @ 24/1 6 Places Bet365, 25/1 5 Places, 20/1 6 places generally
NAVAL ACADEMY– 1/2 Pt Win @ 25/1 generally
MONOPOLISE – 1/2 Pt Win @ 33/1 generally
Novus, are tip on Tuesday narrowly beaten, is dead interesting if turning out again after Tuesday’s near-miss, but stablemate ALPHA CRUCIS stands out a little further down the weights.
He’s looked a bit of a handicap project since qualifying with three relatively quick runs at the back-end of his two-year-old season and so it proved as he defied an opening mark of 72 when stepped up to a mile on soft ground at Windsor in April.
It’s the next run at Epsom (also soft) that interests me most with this race in mind as I’m convinced he should have won that day, Jason Watson committing some way from the finish to bag a spot on the stands’ rail and looking to have the race in safe keeping with a furlong to travel (traded at the minimum 1.01 on the Betfair Exchange).
In the end he was picked off by a conservatively-ridden rival who came from the clouds but Alpha Crucis may have just been getting a little lonely out in front as he appeared to respond again on being passed.
I can forgive the subsequent low-key effort at Kempton when not unduly punished on route to finishing fifth behind subsequent Britannia Stakes runner-up New Endeavour as the drop back to seven furlongs on the all-weather didn’t look ideal, and I certainly don’t mind his wide draw here given they might all be looking to head over more towards the stands’ side. I like old friend Monopolise and a very interesting Kevin Ryan inmate to back up the main selection, both should relish the conditions.
5:55 Goodwood
BRAVE NATION – 1/2 Pt EW @ 35/1 5 Places Bet365, 33/1 5 Skybet, 40/1 4 places Bet365, 33/1 generally
Caught my eye a few times, a massive price seemingly well drawn for a stable going very, very well and the claimer looks good value for his 7lb which takes his weight down in conditions to a dangerous looking one. Needs to recapture some sparkle but we have seen some of the results and by no means out of this if doing so which is the big if??