Evening folks
A tough looking day, It’s bound to be very testing at Newcastle & Chepstow and nothing else really stood out, hence I went in a couple of Novice events at Kempton which I find a lot, lot tougher than handicap’s. Just the one further selection is as below, along with the ones already sent and their write up’s.
3:37 Kempton
KILLER KANE – 3/4 Pt EW 12/1 4 places generally (He is drifting so 14’s might pop up)
9 year old’s have won 7 of the last 10 runnings of this and, of the 4 in this field, I like this horse quite a lot. That stat backs up my case as the likeable horse has remarkably won on his 4th start of the season twice before and he goes for the 4th time this off the back of a decent run on soft ground after a wind op. He should come on a lot for that and although the ground I’d like not to be too soft, he loves this C & D. He was 5th on faster terrain in this race last year off 5lb higher and this horse loves this time of year. In February & March off breaks less than 60 days he is 4 wins, 2 placers from 7 qualifying runs!
A good jumper and traveller in the main he has won twice before over track and trip see clearly likes this place. Carrying under 11st has also been an advantage in this race and surely will be again given forecast conditions so with just 10st 7lb on his back, reunited with Brendan Powell, I thought he could run a big race in this!
1:15 Kempton
MARK OF GOLD – 1/2 Pt EW 16/1 Bet365 4 places. 14/1 4 places generally
Looks well overpriced to repeat the dose and win this race for a second year running. He was likely lined up for a crack at this year’s Lanzarote Hurdle over today’s course and distance, but despite travelling with more zest than he ever has this term, he fell five out when yet to play his hand.
It was the same story last year before turning up here and bolting up under Caoilin Quinn, and the jockey is back on board for the first time this season today.
Trainer Gary Moore has won this race 4 times and ALL 4 winners were coming off a break of 30 days or more so it looks significant the target trainer has kept this fellow off for 42. Mark of Gold also like this time of year so at the price I thought well worth chancing
2:27 Kempton
ARCLIGHT – 3/4 Pt Win 5/1 generally
Nicky Henderson’s mare has been electric over fences so far and looked ready for a test such as this when winning at Wincanton last time. This is another step up but we haven’t seen the best of her yet and this track plays to her strengths, indeed she is 2 out of 2, both time hacking up so I she can go well.
2:45 Southwell
HIYA MATE – 3/4 Pt EW 14/1 generally
Rapidly improving, he bolted up in a handicap over C & D LTO, cruising home by 5 lengths! It was a handicap but it was won in a very fast time, in fact, just a short fraction slower than Even money fav Clarenden House’s last time C & D win, despite carrying 2lbs more.
Hiya Mate loves this course and in 7 runs here has only ever been unplaced once! He will be up with the pace and although he is up markedly up in class and in ratings, I felt he looked very decent EW odds at the price.
3:00 Kempton
HELNWEIN – 1/2 Pt EW 14/1 & 12/1 3 places generally
Looks a good each way bet with most firms still offering the 3 places inspite of the non runner taking the field size down to 7. This horse canters through his contests and looked home and hosed at Sandown LTO only to tire in the ground on the stiff climb to the finish. This more speed favouring track should suit and he can go very well for a trainer/jockey combo running at 30% winners together in the last few months.
4:10 Kempton
GUSTAVIAN – 3/4 Pt Win 14/1 boost Will Hill, 12 & 11/1 generally
This horse looks interesting having dropped 7lb in the ratings as I feel he has been running in some tough races over the wrong trip. That 7lb drop looks a key fact as he is now off a mark of 131. When he has raced off a perch of 132 or less, over hurdles & fences, he has returned a superb formline of 1,1,1,1,2,2,2,1!!
He relishes heavy terrain and has a good record in class 3 events. The trainer/jock combo have a 35% win strike rate in handicaps past 3 years and I want this horse to go from the front which he can. Quel Destin can go from the front also but he is likely to run at Chepstow as his 1st preference hence I have reluctantl gone win only as the race will be down to 7 and he is still in the betting so I cannot see if 3 places are going to be on offer. I wouldn’t put you off the EW if you can get the 3 but I will stick at win. If he adopts said tactics, he could be very hard to peg back in the ground at this good front runners track, more so with chases, and can go well.