Evening folks
It was tricky leaving horses out and with points already in the bag but just the two further selections are below, along with the ones already sent and their write ups. Nothing more for Saturday.
4:47 Sandown
SECRET SOLACE – 1/2 Pt EW @ 18/1 Will Hill, 16/1 generally
A little bit of feel and guesswork with this selection but I have a gut feeling she will go well. 4 year old’s have a cracking record in this contest and this 4 year old filly makes her handicap debut for a trainer in red hot form who is mustard with his 1st time handicapper’s. In fact, in the past 5 years he has a near 33% win record and over 50% record with such sorts! He teams up very well with Shoemark and they are 1 from 2 together at the track (did us a nice turn lately with Spanish Blaze who goes in the first and should go close) She is a filly, but she has some very strong form against horses that are rating well into the 100’s now so from a nice looking draw in 8, I thought she was worth chancing.
5:00 Haydock
BURDETT – 3/4 Pt EW @ 10/1 generally
Channon & Bass again (cracking record together) this horse blew out after racing keenly under a change of jockey LTO. I will always forgive a horse 1 bad run and there were valid reasons, another being I don’t think the sharp track at Thirsk helped either. He bolted up in a decent race at York the time before, has good form over C & D so I thought a chance to bounce back
1:50 Sandown
PUROSANGUE – 1/2 Pt Win @ 18/1 boost Hills, 16/1 generally
UNBREAK MY HEART – 1/2 Pt Win @ 36/1 boost Hills, 33/1 generally
A very tough sprint hence tentative but 3 year old’s have an excellent record in this when they have contested the event so at the prices, well drawn to attack, for 2 in form trainers. Purosangue has been contesting Group 1’s, running a lot better than the bare form suggests and will relish any easing of the ground. Unbreak My Heart was very unlucky over C & D LTO and Clive Cox has won with his last few runners so that’s the reasoning.
2:05 Haydock
FILIBUSTERING – 3/4 Pt EW @ 20/1 4 generally
I like this improving horse and low weights go well in this. He is top on my unique ratings and also on RPR’s LTO. He ran well last time on unsuitably faster ground IMO and he has already bolted up on soft so any rain will benefit greatly. He comes from 3 HOT form races according to GeeGeez and the icing on the cake for me is the jockey booking. He has NEVER ridden for Tim Easterby before but rides this track brilliantly. In the past 365 days he has ridden 4 winners, 7 placers from 13 rides! That improves again to near 50% in handicaps so I thought worth a poke in what is a tough 3 year old handicap.
2:25 Sandown
CLASSIC – 1.5 Pt Win @ 7/1 boost Lads, 13/2 Lads & Hills boost 6/1 B.O.G generally
Not a lot to say really other than what I said last time. He loves this Esher track and was most unlucky for us over C & D last time out when he came from a near impossible position, weaving through then running on strongly to just fail at a big price. A repeat of that run puts him bag there with a big chance.
SILENT FILM – 1/2 Pt EW @ 20/1 generally
Classic is the main fancy but I couldn’t let this one go unbacked. Ian Williams was badly out of form but has had 3 winners recently and this horse was extremely unlucky in this race last year. Better drawn, he loves Sandown in general and has a massive pull in the weights against many of his re-opposing rivals so can go well at a price.
2:40 Haydock
NOVUS – 1/2 Pt EW @ 20/1 generally
One who needs the rain to arrive, form figures on good to soft or softer read an impressive 2,2,1,1,1,1,1! The step up in trip is the unknown but breeding suggests she could improve for it and may have a turn of foot unlike ALL the others in this so if the rain does come, the price will dramatically shorten IMO so although we need all of the 8-10mm forecast, worth chancing overnight at tasty odds.
3:15 Haydock
FLASH BARDOT – 1/2 Pt EW @ 40/1 Bet365 5 places, 28/1 boosts Hills/Lads 5 places
Speculative so could blow as she is one who needs the rain to arrive. He form with genuine cut in the ground is up there with the best of these and she has been running better than the bare form reads, travelling well before unable to quicken on ground faster than ideal IMO. She now gets lumps of weight off re-opposing rivals with George Bass’s 3lb claim an extra bonus, as is his booking as he was her last winning jockey AND his combo with Jack Channon is tremendous, especially here over this distance so again, thought worth chancing given the forecast??
3:35 Sandown
JAYAREBE – 1/2 Pt EW @ 15/1 boost Will Hill & Lads, 14/1 3 places generally
I’m taking on City Of Troy has he can put in a blowout run. This horse is improving rapidly and won well over this distance at Royal Ascot. Winners from there returning to the track within 35 day have a very good record, as does his trainer with these sorts and in this very race. He has ONLY ever run 4 horses in it previously, winning it once and having 2 further placers, one at 100/1! He doesn’t tend to over face his horses so he must think he is Group 1 class so at the prices I thought a decent EW bet.