Good evening folks
I ended up unearthing more horses that we have backed previously than I anticipated. As I have always told you, the effort that goes in reaps rewards if not necessarily on the day. A 12 point outlay with two further selections below added to the ones already sent. Nothing more for Saturday.
3:05 Newmarket
MERCURY DAY – 1.25 Pt Win @ 10/1 boosts Hill/Lads/Unibet, 9/1 generally
Tipped at Goodwood, had previously bolted up over C & D in a similar contest. If back to that, for a small yard that is going very well, she goes close.
3:12 Redcar
AL MARMAR – 1.25 Pt EW @ 14/1 boost Lads/Hills, 12/1 B.O.G generally
I was very strong on this horses chances if you remember when tipped at York LTO, he had no chance from the rear on a day where it paid to race very prominently/lead! He made late headway and shaped as if his turn was near and has been dropped a generous couple of pounds in the process. This also represents a drop in class against this lot and the form of his penultimate run over C &D couldn’t be stronger. The winner, La Trinidad has won since, so as the 2nd & 5th. Obelix also ran a decent race for us at Ascot in a very slowly run race also. The icing on the cake is the trainer/jockey combo. Gemma Tutty is on fire at the moment and the booking of very useful claimer Ethan Jones suggests a massive run is on the cards. They have teamed up JUST 5 times in 1 mile handicaps, achieving 3 winners & a narrowly beaten second!!
His 5lb claim takes this horses mark down to a very, very winnable one which is fully 7lbs below his last where he bolted up by over 3 lengths in a mile handicap and a whopping 18lb below is peak winning one!! Hopefully he gets a nicer pace/better set up in this race on the straight course and if doing so, I can see him going mightily close at a big looking price to my mind!
2:45 Ascot
DANCING IN PARIS – 3/4 Pt EW @ 8/1 boost Will Hill 4 places, 15/2 4 places generally
Improving, smooth traveller should get a good toe into this then finish off strongly late in the piece and surely places at the very least given his consistent profile and recent form.
3:05 Newmarket
KOY KOY – 1/2 Pt EW @ 20/1 Bet365, 10/1 few places general(a lot of books not gone up as of yet so may get bigger)
Didn’t take to the 1st time tongue tie LTO, he is very well handicapped facing this lot and his previous 2 runs, one at this track, is strong form the Grade. He is 1 from on this July Course, loves Gd to Firm going and his trainer continues in excellent form. Hopefully he puts his last run behind him which is the IF? But we are getting the price to find out so worth a bet.
3:25 Curragh
TORIVEGA – 3/4 Pt EW @ 22/1 boost Unibet 4 places, 20/1 4 places generally
Tipped, if you recall, in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot when he was massively punted, he was hampered at a crucial stage and could never get a clear run. The good to firm/fast ground wouldn’t have played to this smooth travelling 4 year olds strength. He has run two super races over today’s C & D and although they were in handicaps, (step up in class here which sprinters can achieve more easily than middle distance horses),the form is very strong for both races and they were also run in slower than average times. He has been continuously denied a clear run in his races after travelling all over his rivals. There looks set to be a rocket pace (hopefully so?) on in this which he is drawn around and will suit him down to the ground so if that is the scenario that I have envisaged, then from a lovely draw, he can run a big race for us at juicy odds.
3:40 Newmarket
ELSIES RUAN – 3/4 Pt Win @ 14/1 Bet365, 12/1 + boosts generally
4:30 Ascot
SILENT FILM – 3/4 Pt EW @ 13/2 boost Hills 4 places, 6/1 4 places generally
4:35 Curragh
RUDI’S APPLE – 1/2 Pt EW @ 25/1 boost Will Hill, 22/1 normal, 20/1 generally
Massively impressive when bolting up over C & D LTO, he posted a very fast time which is faster than ANY of these that have run here previously. That was a handicap but these 2 year old’s can improve hugely and surely the connections wouldn’t blow a mark to pitch him straight into a Group 1 off of the back of that? It is a massive leap, and he could prove not up to the task this early in his career but the time figure, and manner of victory, strongly suggest he can make a mark in this so at a huge price I thought well worth chancing.
4:45 Haydock
DORA MILAJE – 3/4 Pt EW @ 28/1 boost Lads/Hills, 25/1 generally
She is a lightly-raced four-year-old, who had some strong form in a short campaign last season, and she built on the promise of her runner-up effort in a competitive, big-field handicap at Wetherby when opening her account for the year over a mile and a quarter at this course in June.
There was a lot to like about that performance, looking like a horse who is ready for a higher level, travelling all over her rivals (arguably a little too keen) and overcoming trouble in-running to be cosily on top at the line, showing a very decent turn of foot.
Dora Milaje hasn’t managed to make her mark in Listed company the last twice, but she was ridden too aggressively back at a mile in soft ground when fourth to Caernarfon at Pontefract, and the horse who she forced the pace with ended up finishing tailed off in last position, so it wasn’t that bad of a run on the face of it. I’d fancy her to reverse that form now on much better ground provided she is ridden more patiently.
She also shaped as though still in top form back over a mile and a quarter at York last time, travelling into the race best of all, still on the bridle under two furlongs out, but finding less than looked likely. Dora Milaje again was a little keen in the first half of the race, and I think the return to a mile round here, where she looked so impressive earlier in the season, should be right up her street. Her breeding strongly suggests so
The ground will be perfect for her and I’d imagine Indelible and Strutting will likely go forward, so the pace should hopefully be sound, and I just think she doesn’t deserve to be the outsider of the field on how she’s been shaping and what she’s already achieved.