Evening Folks
Another jam packed Saturday where I find it very tricky indeed to leave horses out but I have so two further tips for tomorrow below, along with the ones already sent and their write up’s. Nothing more for Saturday’s racing.
2:45 Newmarket
LYNDON B – 1 Pt Win @ 14/1 generally
Owes us one, 2 wins from 4 when Muscutt has ridden and has form to go close
5:00 Newbury
CITY OF YORK – 3/4 Pt EW @ 25/1 Bet365 5 places, 16/1 5 places generally drifting
Another lightly weighted 4 year old, he is just 1lb above his last winning mark which came in good fashion over none other than our old friend Metal Merchant. He has shown signs he is about to peak and he comes good in these autumn months and he will relish any worsening of the ground (more heavy rain forecast who knows??)Stall 1 is the unknown but there looks a decent pace on in this on paper and again, the trainer/jockey combo looks significant as 3 of their last 4 when teaming up have won!! Worth chancing.
1:15 Ayr
OBELIX – 1.25 Pts E.W @ 13/2 boost Lads 4 places, 6/1 4 places Lads/Corals, 11/2 4 generally (may get better later)
An improving 4 year old, did what I thought he was capable of LTO when he absolutely bolted up, travelling well and doing well to win showing a tremendous turn of foot. The trainer, in good form, likes winners here also, gaining 6 winners (26% SR) 11 placers (near 50%) from 23 runners! The winning jockey also retains the ride which I like.
Well drawn in stall 5, I hope he sits mid div and if so, and getting a run through, a repeat of that form sees him go mighty close in this!
2:05 Newbury
ITHACA’S ARROW – 3/4 Pt EW @ 18/1 boost Lads 4 places, 16/1 normal, 14/1 4 places generally
Another improving 4 year old, his prominent style of racing suits this track. Thought good enough to contest the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham (too hot at this stage of his career IMO) he has already bolted up at this track on bad ground over hurdles. A smooth traveller, he has no weight to carry which is a big advantage, especially if conditions hopefully worsen, and although he has to improve on his flat form, his last 4 RPR’s have been huge in comparison to his rating! The icing on the cake is the small yard’s stable form. In the past 2 weeks, he has sent out 4 winners, 5 placers from 12 runners!! All that being said, I would be very disappointed if he doesn’t run a big race here.
2:25 Ayr
ROCK OPERA– 1/2 Pt EW @ 22/1 boost Will Hill 6 places, 20/1 6 places generally
This consistent, improving 4 year old, has some strong form, coming home strongly each time. He loves to slot in and come through horses in his races and the faster they go the better. He’s in stall four so we know where he’ll be racing and if it is the right place to be, I can see him coming home well.
3:15 Newbury
BRIAN – 3/4 Pt Win @ 11/1 boost Lads 4 places, 10/1 generally
None of the market leaders are sure to appreciate this turnaround in the ground and it brings Sylvester Kirk’s consistent horse firmly into the equation.
He’s well experienced for a juvenile after seven runs and his form stacks up well, as he lost by a neck to the Gimcrack winner Cool Hoof Luke on his second start and he did the best of those held up in the rear when third in the Sirenia Stakes, behind the reopposing Symbol Of Strength, last time out at Kempton.
Both of those were on the all-weather, but his turf form is just as strong and he looked the best he has been on soft ground when winning by over four lengths at Newmarket in August, while he has a five-and-a-half length win at Newbury to his name, too.
His experience and his ability to go on the ground look vital assets in against less experienced for rivals and he shouldn’t be underestimated after being pitched in against horses with sexier profiles.
3:35 Ayr
DARE TO HOPE– 1/2 Pt EW @ 33/1 Bet365 6 places, 25/1 6 places generally
I missed this lad after tipping him at Goodwood. He has been running well all season in top handicap’s and has been scuppered by the draw on numerous occasions. He adopted strange front running tactics LTO so I can forgive him that and with all these tough handicap’s the draw is always the unknown but we are getting the prices for improving, under the radar horse (as with Rock Opera)
Trainer states – I think he’s a massive price! Things just didn’t go right for him at York last time, he hit the gates and got racing a bit too soon for Oisin Orr. We’ll ride him with more restraint on Saturday and he’ll run well if stall 21 is a good place to be.
FIVETHOUSANDTOONE– 1/2 Pt EW @ 40/1 6 places generally
A winner of the AW Sprint Championships back in the spring, Fivethousandtoone is only 1 lb higher than that now and has run well since, notably when fourth in the Chipchase at Newcastle, finishing behind Montassib, Kinross and Willem Twee.
He ran off a mark of 105 in the Wokingham (repeatedly denied a clear run) and 104 in the International and Stewards Cup so 99 looks very workable now and he shaped much better than the bare result in the City of York Stakes at the Ebor meeting last time, moving to the front on the bridle (touched 4.0 in-running) but weakening out of things having been a bit keen early on.
A return to a well-run 6f should suit, and I like the jockey booking who has ridden him once to a narrow 2nd and he’s surely too big a price not to chance.
5:20 Chester
QITAAL – 1.25 Pt Win @ 5/1 generally
Has some strong form, surely been teed up for this, named after his jockey for whom, at his favourite track, has his last ride.