Evening folks
A final bet for Saturday is below, along with the ones already sent and their write ups. Nothing further for Saturday.
4:45 Catterick
HIGH OPINION – 1/2 Pt EW @ 18/1 Betfred 4 places, 14/1 4 places Skybet, 20/1 generally
It’s a sprint and he needs to step up in class but at the price I think he can go well for a jockey who is 1 from 1 on him. It came over C & D which I like and I also like his draw as no doubt, as they always seem to do, will swing wide and come to the stands rail so from 11 he is in prime position to get a good position. He is a strong, smooth traveller but like I said has to prove up to this grade.
1:20 Ascot
AL NAYYIR – 1 Pt Win @ 7/1 generally
Short-priced favourites have been beaten in the opening marathon both years it’s had to be run on the inner/jumps course and at the prices I’m quite keen to oppose odds-on shot Kyprios, who is the best horse in the race by some margin but has had a long old season which started back in April. He got beaten in this last year by Trawlerman and Al Nayyir was well in front of that horse at Meydan. This 4 year old looks to be rapidly improving for his up and coming in form trainer and fairly bolted up LTO. Granted that was a listed contest but I loved the way he came home at York also against Vauban. He is only 4lbs behind on official ratings so I thought he could be the one to cause the upset.
1:55 Ascot
JAMESS DELIGHT – 3/4 Pt EW @ 14/1 Sporting Index & SpreadEX fixed odds 4 places, 12/1 5 places Paddy Power if you prefer
A rapidly improving 3 year old sprinter, loves soft ground. Ryan Moore booked very much suggests he’s primed to run a massive race as he 1 from 1 aboard him, has won on 4 of his last 5 rides for the stable and has a remarkable record, since 2010, of 9 wins from 14 rides at Class 1 level and above!! I like his draw and if he is in the right place I think he can run a very big race for us.
2:35 Ascot
WAR CHIMES – 1/2 Pt EW @ 25/1 Bet365 4 places, 22/1 4 places generally (may get bigger as drifting)
She was very impressive in a Listed event in heavy ground over nine furlongs at Chantilly on her final start last season, stretching five lengths clear of the Andre Fabre-trained Sosie, who has developed into a very smart colt this year, finishing third in the French Derby, winning the Grand Prix de Paris and Prix Niel, and finishing fourth in the Arc.
That piece of form reads very well now and she proved herself a smart filly when finishing third in a soft-ground Oaks at Epsom despite looking ill at ease on the track. She started 50/1 that day but there was no fluke about that performance and, though it may not have been the strongest renewal of the Oaks, she was comfortably on top of subsequent Irish Oaks winner You Got To Me.
War Chimes was below form in the Irish Oaks, but I think you can overlook that run, as it came on ground Timeform described as good to firm and she never appeared to let herself down on it. She hung badly to her right in the closing stages on that occasion and it clearly wasn’t her true running.
I’m encouraged she has been given plenty of time to get over that run, as she is a well-made filly with plenty of substance, who will likely have benefited no end by some time off to fill into her frame.
Menuisier also stated in a stable tour ahead of the Irish Oaks that he would be much happier if the ground was on the soft side, and also mentioned this race as a potential end-of-season target. He is tremendous form as well and has ONLY run 4 horses in this Grade over C & D, gaining 2 winners and a placer!!Of course she needs to improve, and ALL these races on this card are tough, but these conditions should bring out the best in her and she has the potential to progress another chunk after a break so a value play IMO.
3:15 Ascot
PRAGUE – 3/4 Pt Win @ 14/1 Corals, 12/1 generally BOG & drifting
DANCING GEMINI – 1/2 Pt EW @ 55/1 boost Lads, 50/1 generally
Prague needs no describing to you, I love this horse can’t look him over in this despite his draw. Interestingly in this race though higher numbers have fared well. Another rapidly improving 4 year old, after just 5 starts there could be a lot more to come so at the price I have to have him on side. As do I Dancing Gemini from the lower draws. He should have beaten Metropolitan last season yet is 5 times the 5 price today? Loves soft ground the stamina in his pedigree suggests this stiff mile could be perfect so at that sort of price, worth finding out.
3:55 Ascot
ROYAL RHYME – 1/2 Pt EW @ 55/1 boost Will Hill & Lads, 50/1 generally
Has been running creditably in Group 1’s on his unfavoured ground. His record on God to Soft or Softer is 5 wins & a place from 6 runs!! We know the stable, with these colours especially, are in supreme form and we often see some big priced upsets against favourites at this meeting so at a huge price, I though he could massively outrun those odds and although a very tough race, worth chancing I thought.
4:35 Ascot
MEXICALI ROSE – 3/4 Pt EW @ 28/1 boost Lads 5 places, 25/1 5 places generally
MR PROFESSOR – 1/2 Pt EW @ 25/1 Paddy & Betfairsrprtsbk 5 places
3:00 Newmarket
The both of these look ideally drawn, who knows?? Mexicali Rose is 3 wins 1 place from 4 runs on straight courses and has been running very consistently all season and should be running on well at the finish. Mr Professor won the Lincoln for us on his seasonal debut and although would ideally like a run, we know he goes very well fresh and this is his time of year. 4 wins, 1place from 8 starts under these prime conditions. Should be up there also and I thought well worth chancing both.