Good evening folks
A tough looking day so no further tips and not much outlay. I waited on the prices for Sixties Chic (11:40 Lingfield) but 4/1 is win only price territory to me and it could be a messy contest where she may come from the rear. She should be an EW bet to nothing (swooping wide and late is what I pictured and would like to see) if you so wish as a freebie and I will play her that way if I can get 5’s or bigger.
12:55 Haydock
BLUE BALOO – 1/2 Pt EW 25/1 boost Will Hill, 22/1 generally drifting so may get bigger if wanting to wait.
Through various lines of form this horse is a big price in this with not as much to find on figures IMO. She is a smooth traveller and should relish the trip on this terrain. The trainer is in form and likes a winner here so I thought worth a poke.
2:05 Haydock
JAGWAR – 1.5 Pt Win 3/1 William Hill, 11/4 generally
Strong traveller, this 4 year old looks potentially thrown in against this exposed lot. The trainer feels him good enough to run in the Graded Tolworth Hurdle and a big Cheltenham Festival handicap. If that is so he goes very close here although what the ground will be who knows?
Trainer quote:
He is equally as exciting as Iroko, and he is as nice a horse as we have had. I know that Paul Nicholls thinks a lot about Inthewaterside and I think on another day we could have beaten him. We haven’t been that hard on him and he will have improved a bit for the run, and it didn’t help having the hurdles out. We will probably try and go for the Tolworth and if he was third or fourth, we would get a handicap mark then and we would look at some other graded races with him and long-term look to one of the handicap at the Festival.
3:00 Ascot
VICTTORINO – 1 Pt Win 6/1 generally
Victtorino was a comfortable winner over C & D LTO and has been raised a very generous looking 4 lb for that smooth success. Yeah Man has been backed to beat him but in my opinion Victtorino was idling and could have gone again and that horse ran in snatches all the way through.
He has a big weight here but I like how he has been given plenty of time since, this race more than likely pencilled in soon after that victory. The ground will be no problem for Victtorino, and he is just the type that Venetia Williams will continue to get more out of, so I’m more than happy to back him to repeat the feat don by Williams before in doing the double Ascot win with the same horse.
3:15 Haydock
STORM NELSON – 1/2 Pt Win 16/1 Bet365, 11/1 generally
BUSHYPARK – ½ Pt Win 14/1 Bet365, 11/1 generally
In a poor contest, these two although seemingly out of form, have a massive class edge over the rest of these. Bushypark will blaze from the front, goes well for the jockey and is 2 from 3 at Haydock, which includes a bloodless C & D win. Storm Nelson has been in classy handicaps. If either bounce back, and we have seen on heavy at this track before strange results, they can go well and I thought worth playing the both win only on a tough day.
3:35 Ascot
TEDDY BLUE – 1/2 Pt EW 33/1 Betvictor 4 places, 28/1 4 places generally
NEMEAN LION – 3/4 Pt EW 12/1 Betvictor 4 places, 11 & 10/1 4 places generally
A strong looking 6 year old, he travelled powerfully towards the rear in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham last time out (very strong form, 4th & 6th either side of him won next time already!) and still had every chance at the top of the hill, but a blunder three from home and a bad mistake at the second-last more or less ended his chance. That is a worry but he still appeals as being a well-handicapped horse from a BHA mark of 140. The form of his Welsh Champion Hurdle win, which came from 5 lb lower, isn’t working out all that badly and he travels through his races like he has an even bigger performance in the locker up just 5lb.
The return to likely better ground may also be in his favour – his last two wins over hurdles have come on ground Timeform described as good to soft – and he looks a good each way play in this for a yard who have had 2 winners from their last 3 runners.
The much quicker/better conditions this weekend could see a huge turn around in form for the strong-traveller Teddy Blue and, following the two bad runs on unsuitable ground he’s been dropped a couple of pounds and can now compete off a mark of 134, just 2lb higher than when runner-up to Black Poppy in the Swinton at Haydock back in May.
A good third to Aucunrisque in last year’s Betfair Hurdle off 133, I don’t think he’s done with yet in these major handicap races and is definitely being overlooked on this occasion.