Unsure if this went so re-sending
Good afternoon folks
The chases in the main I found very tough, especially with some of the field sizes on offer. Having said that, I like two which are below along with a 2 mile handicap hurdle selection, added to the couple already sent and their write up’s. Nothing further doing on a tricky looking Saturday
12:40 Warwick
WORD HAS IT – 3/4 Pt EW 9/1 Will Hill, 8/1 generally
A poor handicap in the main. I tipped Donnacha LTO @ Cheltenham if you recall and all he did was stay on which suggests to me, at the price and on this sharp track at this distance, he is worth taking on. Although Word Has It has a welter-burden to carry (proof of a poor race) the useful William Maggs takes 7lb off and these connections did us a nice turn recently with Geromino. He is in good form with 2 of his last 4 rides winning but it is the fact they come South together which peaked my interest. Since Jan 2021, Donald McCain has ONLY sent out 9 runners at this track over this trip in handicaps. 4 of those won and 5 placed!! Word Has It travels well and should put up a bold show looking to back up his last time out win, something most of these have struggled to do!
3:00 Warwick
RAPPER – 1/2 Pt EW 25/1 paddy Power & boost Will Hill,20/1 5 places generally (drifting may get bigger)
I said when tipped @ 50’s LTO that we should follow this horse next time out. I thought he would head back to Cheltenham on New Years Day for a race he bolted up in last January but he side stepped that contest to come for this more valuable event which looks significant. The trainer loves a marathon chase winner, especially at this track and he puts on claimer Alice Stevens who takes off a useful 5lbs. She is riding well with 4 winners, 8 placers from her last 18 rides. The icing on the cake is Rapper’s record in January, a month he seems to come alive and produce his best!
His form figures read 1,2 (narrow defeat) 1,1 which is a tremendous record!
He jumps nicely and I hope he tracks the pace like last time as this course lends itself to such tactics. If so, and he gets into a nice rhythm, then I think he can go very well at a decent price.
3:15 Kempton
LE LIGERIEN – 1 Pt Win @ 6/1 Bet365, 11/2 generally
The favourite might hack up but I have looked at his videos and he hasn’t impressed me one bit and might be outpaced at this track on drying ground and I can easily look past him @ 11/8!
Le Ligerien has to concede him lots of weight but his last 2 runs have been his best, even at the age of 11! He looked all over the winner in a lot stronger handicap than this at Cheltenham last time out, only to find the uphill climb on very soft ground stretching his stamina. His previous run he had absolutely bolted up over C & D, jumping well making all which I envisage/hope he does tomorrow. For a yard in fine form, he could take some catching from the front and rates a decent bet IMO.
2:42 Kempton
SAMUEL SPADE – 3/4 Pt EW @ 20/1 6 places generally
SERIOUS OPERATOR – 3/4 Pt EW @ 28/1 5 places generally
I like winners coming into this race carrying under 11st 7lb (last 10 winners did) who have won over 2m 3f or further and this pair fit the bill. Samuel Spade was most impressive LTO, showing a good turn of foot. He has winning form at the track and jockey Kielan Woods is 2 from 3 on him. This improving 5 year old was thought good enough to contest the Fred Winter at last years Festival so with the trainer also in good form looks very interesting. Serious Operator is another smooth traveller and is looking to back up a taking success LTO at Doncaster. My last big priced tipped winner in this was Big Time Dancer who took the very same Donny race before coming on to win this for us. In fact, that Doncaster event has thrown up the winner of this 3 times in recent years so with what looks to be a lot that like to get on with it, hopefully they get that good pace to chase and, travel into it nicely before unleashing hopefully winnable efforts.