Hi folks
As I said on Sunday, the very early part of the Flat Turf season is tricky with horses coming back from long breaks. My forte is picking out, especially 4 year olds, horses to go to war with for the season that will make us good profits. Of course, first time up is the unknown and may not be the day but, having said that, two I like for tomorrow are as below, along with a 3 year old who should make his mark.
1:50 Newmarket
PRINCE OF PILLO – 1/2 Pt EW @ 20/1 4 places generally
A very smart, speedy 2 year old for Keith Dalgleish, he was rated 105 at his best but as is often the case with these sort I like is that he lost his way as a 3 year old. He was running against the likes of Regional et al, proven Group 1 performers but at that stage of his career found it too tough. Now dropped to a mark of 89, if anywhere near retaining his ability then he is one to follow and could go close here if ready to rock so worth chancing. Trainer states:
One we got in very late last year and he had a couple of runs for us. He disappointed both times. He had a setback and whether he was carrying that I don’t know but he wasn’t really working well or showing anything. However, he’s had a good break, three months box rest to sort out the little problem and his work has been very good. He’s down to 89 now having been 100 plus at one stage of his career so hopefully he can take advantage of that. He’s definitely a sprinter to follow. He goes to Newmarket fit and well and it’s a big day for him. I hope he runs like he’s been working.
2:20 Newmarket
GRAND KARAT – 1 Pt Win @ 7/1 Bet365, 6/1 B.O.G generally
A tough looking race with any amount of unknown improvers but this taking 3 year old son of triple Group 1 winning miler Gleneagles should be one of them with and this step up in trip ought to bring out massive improvement in him. He shaped well on all 3 runs last season, pushing close 4 horses who are now rated well into 100’s.He goes handicapping off a mark of just 80 here which he is surely much, much better than. His trainer is 1 from 1 with his first time handicappers and is in brilliant early season form, winning with 4 of his last 7 runners so I thought taking all of the above into consideration, worth chancing in this
2:55 Newmarket
OBELIX – 3/4 Pt EW @ 20/1 5 places generally
A 4 year old I like and it’s possible he needs further but IMO a strongly run mile with a stiff finish should prove ideal. He has run two very, very eye-catching races on the July course at HQ then again ran a cracker to the eventual Cambridgeshire winner at York. On each run he travelled supremely well but given too much to do/went too soon over 1m 2f. He disappointed on his last 2 runs for the Gosden yard (very soft ground not ideal IMO) and was subsequently picked up by Julie Camacho. She has a cracking record at this course with her limited runners and also does very well with 1st time switchers to her yard. Indeed, she has a 5 year 20% win & 50 place SR with them! Hopefully they go a good clip and I envisage and see/want he could sit on the back of them before using that proven stamina and strong finish. If ready to go, he too was a good price and well worth us chancing.