Good evening folks
I’ve spent all day and some of yesterday on the Newbury card and I have done my best to come up with some strong as can be opinions on what is sure to be a very, very challenging day for all concerned. With that, a final selection is as below, along with the ones already sent and their write up’s. Nothing further for Saturday.
2:40 Newbury
HOMETOWN BOY – 3/4 Pt Win 9/1 generally
Ran and jumped as well as could be expected back from nearly 3 years off in a hot Novice chase at Carlisle in October, I feel he can go well from the front in this. A good handicap hurdler, he won his point to point on heavy going over 3 miles and is related to Irish Grand National winners. His trainer/jockey combo are in great form, especially when teaming up in handicaps of late. In fact, 4 of the last 6 have won, and I have a feeling this handicap has been his plan for a while. Worth a poke.
2:05 Newbury
SAM BROWN – 1/2 Pt EW 16/1 William Hill boost, 14/1 generally
A bit of stab, definitely on class but IMO, he only needs Shiskin to fluff his lines and we could be in business. I have a feeling, if it rides as heavy as they say, then aside from Shiskin’s foibles at the start, he may struggle to get home on it over a trip this far? He may well hose up, but at the price we know our fellow stays the trip strongly, especially on the heavy terrain where he is 3 wins from 5. Worth a poke on a limited handicap day.
2:40 Newbury
AMARILLO SKY – 3/4 Pt Win 10/1 generally
Back from a break after suffering a leg injury, he doesn’t have a lot, if anything with these recent disappointing types on paper and he gets a handy 6lbs off of most. Younger horses take this race and Amarillo Sky’s course form here reads 41F1 (he looked set to win when tumbling two out in February 2022)
If this improving, bold jumping 8 year old, the youngest in the field I may add, is fit and firing for his return, he expect he could spring a surprise if the ground is no issue which must be a concern so win only the way to go I felt..
3:15 Newbury
GO DANTE – 3/4 Pt EW 25/1 7 places William Hill boost, 22/1 normal 7 places, 28/1 Lads boost 25/1 6 places generally
This likeable son of Kayf Tara seems to be overlooked at the prices given his form-lines and his trainer, Olly Murphy is in flying form at presen. 8 of his last 17 runners have WON with 5 other 2nd placers in the past couple of weeks!!
He travelled away nicely on ground Timeform reported as heavy in the Greatwood Hurdle on his reappearance, but he was too fresh and keen on his first run for 219 days so it was no wonder he faded into sixth in such an ultra competitive race that has work out ridiculously well!
Next time out he won very takingly IMO, despite flattening the last hurdle befor regaining his momentum and powering up the hill
The form looks good with the dead-heating thirds Panjari and our other tip Donnacha both winning since, while the handicapper only put him up 4lb, a fair enough rise for a quality Cheltenham race that is working out well.
He’s all stamina at two miles, as you might expect for a horse who ran in the 2m4f Challow Novices’ Hurdle at this track in his youth, so I suspect that a strong gallop at the trip is exactly what he wants and he should get that on Saturday with a handful of front-runners in the field. That day, despite being nearly brought down, he finished 4th to none other that Stage Star! West Balboa was 2nd and Lossiemouth behind him in 5th!!
The ground poses a question but his sires progeny seem at their happiest on soft to heavy, so he could thrive in the conditions.
The returning Sean Bowen knows him well, on board for his last two victories, and he has a horse who can lay up just off the leaders before pouncing in the straight, so all in all, well worth a bet at the prices.
NORMAN FLETCHER – 1/2 Pt EW 30/1 Will Hill boost 7 places, 28/1 normal 7 places, 28/1 6 places generally(drifting)
His trainer knows how to win this prestigious race with novices like this fellow. In fact, his record is 1,1,1,4 with such said types. His sire has thrown up numerous good Newbury winners, very interestingly 3 winners of this very race!! So it’s clear to me the trainer has long had this race in mind. He won’t mind the ground and Twiston Davies’s son his 5 wins from 7 on him and gets back in the plate here so I expect a big run.
DONNACHA – 1/2 Pt EW 33/1 7 places Skybet, 28/1 7 William Hill, 28/1 6 places generally
The trainer has reservations over the ground, which is a concern for them all in this if truth be told (who knows how it will ride?) but this strapping looking 6 year old is improving his form and RPRs with every run which is a very good sign. The trainer has an excellent record with LTO winners (30%) so at the price, given his form ties in with a lot of the major fancied horses in this and he is set to carry a lovely racing weight of 10st 7lb (should be a big advantage if ground is ridiculous), worth chancing and seeing if it suits. If he goes in it then he is surely staying on to challenge strongly late in the piece.