Good morning folks
Well over 20 points up so a nice pot to play with on another tricky day though.
A trio of further selections for today as below. It’s been a decent week, some blow out runs but as I have stated to you time and time again, this period is very tough with NH horses coming to the end of a long season and the flat horses first time out, which counted against the likes of Yawoclef, Monopolise & Haymaker who were a bit too keen. I find these horses for a reason so they WILL pay us back handsomely throughout the season once the form settles down, then the consistency of selection follows suit. Win only a couple in these races pays much better and we get blow outs but hard to be strong EW when fitness the unknown but a good pay back if we find a winner who has the profile I like as above.
3:15 Newbury
ATRIUM– 3/4 Pt Each way @ 19/2 5 places Bet365, 10/1 4 places, 8/1 5 places Skybet, 8/1 generally
He seemed bogged down on desperate ground in the Lincoln at Doncaster and ATRIUM is given another chance in this valuable pot.
Charlie Fellow’s charge enjoyed a productive 2022, including a course-and-distance win in August, and Kieran Shoemark was easy on him once his chance had gone at Town Moor. It will be no surprise to see him bounce back.
Quote
Charlie Fellowes, trainer: “Kieran Shoemark has ridden him twice in big-field handicaps where he’s got right in among them and he’s come away and said the horse doesn’t like being crowded, so I was delighted to see just 14 runners and we’ve a draw towards the outside [stall 13], which I think will help. A lot of the time when he wins is when he gets a bit of daylight. He’d been working well before the Lincoln and we’re happy with him, so if we can get the first part of the race right I think he can run a big race. I don’t think the ground will be an issue as he wants it on the soft side of good.”
5:15 Newbury
TUXEDO JUNCTION– 1/2 Pt Win @ 25/1 B.O.G generally
TIGER BEETLE – 1/2 Pt Win @ 11/1 B.O.G generally
1:30 Newbury
SURREY MIST– 1/2 Pt Each way @ 27/1 William Hill, 25/1 generally
3:15 Newbury
GREAT MAX– 1/2 Pt Each way @ 27/1 Boost 4 places William Hill, 25/1 4 places generally
We have seen this week, the AMO racing silks have made hay at Newmarket and I am hoping this horse can add to the tally. He was a very classy 2 year old, chasing home horses rate 120 & 114 at Ascot and ultimately his mark paid the price. These are the type I like as they often go missing at 3 then bounce back as a 4 year old. He has won here which is a plus, as is the form of young trainer Alice Haynes, who has had 4 winners (36.36% SR) 5 placers from here last 11 turf runners. Add in the fact retainer jockey Kevin Stott’s sparkling form and his record when used by the which reads 1,1,2 from just 3 runs! Then I thought, although speculative, worth chancing he is off a good mark of 99 and fit to run a big race.
1:50 Ayr
NED TANNER– 1/2 Pt Each way @ 16/1 4 places Skybet, 16/1 generally
This extremely consistent and tough 7 year old looks over priced here IMO, receiving weight from the classier types but this race has thrown up shocks/big priced winners in the past. The small yard of Nick Alexander punches well above his weight given the ammunition he has and produces excellent results with what he has. This must have been this horses long term target as the trainer has a superb 2 year record at the course, especially when booking Sean Quinlan who is an eye-catchingly good 4 winners from 9 mounts, 5 placers in that timeframe so I am hopeful of a good showing in this.
2:25 Ayr
SOARING GLORY– 3/4 Pt Win @ 13/2 Bet365, 6/1 generally
HIGHWAY ONE O TWO– 3/4 Pt Win @ 14/1 B.O.G generally
A tough race and I didn’t feel strong on each way so split stakes it is. Soaring glory is a rare raider here for the trainer and in fact he is 1 from 1 when his son rides over hurdles! Soaring Glory is back down to his last winning mark of 143. He needs to leave behind a couple of poor runs but the break could work the oracle. He is a PERFECT 5 wins from 5 returning fresh so I thought worth chancing.
Highway One O Two goes a great clip and I like this ‘target race’ trainer. The booking of Gavin Sheehan, his last winning jockey, looks significant for a big run, with his record for this trainer 2 wins, 3 places from 4 runs at this distance to date!
Add in the fact that Sheehan has ONLY ridden 5 hurdlers here since November 2018 and achieved a stat of 2 from 5, 3 placers, then I thought he too was worthy of a wager.
3:35 Ayr
MALINA GIRL– 3/4 Pt Each way @ 14/1 6 places B.O.G generally
COOPERS CROSS– 1/2 Pt Each way @ 28/1 places B.O.G generally
This has been the plan for Malina Girl who won impressively upped in trip LTO. As we have seen time and time again (Vanillier nearly in the Grand National last Sat) Gavin Cromwell is a master target trainer. He has brought 7 horses here ALL TIME and recorded 3 wins & 5 placers, with a perfect 100% win SR over chases of 2 from 2! He puts this jockey up when he means business in handicap chases with an excellent record of 4 from 8 (50% SR) when doing so. A big run looks in the offing in an ultra competitive race.
Coopers Cross is a smooth traveller, trainer in form so if he sees out the distance, which is the big unknown, he too could run well at a price. He was cantering in last weeks Topham before he came down 4 out so let’s hope that hasn’t left it’s mark?