Good afternoon folks
Two further tips for Saturday are as below, including a massive value play that could backfire. List of selections already sent and their write up’s attached. Nothing more for a mega busy Saturday, I struggled badly to narrow down as there are lots I like and exciting to go to war with as the season progresses. Lots of effort gone in, need a lie down now lol! 🙂
4:25 Punchestown
MUST BE OBEYED– 3/4 Pt Each way @ 13/1 5 places Bet365, 14/1 4 places, 12/1 4 places generally
Two from three at this track, could make them all go from the front off a lovely racing weight.
5:30 Punchestown
STARZOV– 1/2 Pt Each way @ 100/1 6 places Paddy Power, 100/1 5 places generally
Crazy price given his course form. I half fancied him at Aintree and he caught my eye in the same manner Regarding Ruth did. It is speculative but we are getting a monster price.
1:05 Sandown
ARQOOB– 3/4 Pt Each way @ 20/1 5 places Bet365 B.O.G, 16/1 6, 16/1 & 14 5 places generally
JOE DADANCER– 3/4 Pt Win @ 16/1 B.O.G generally
A horse I tipped on the flat track twice here last season, he looks very attractively weighted here granted his flat ability, especially at this track for an in form combo (last 2 runners have both Won!) that did us a lovely turn yesterday with Regarding Ruth!
This former William Jarvis-trained Flat handicapper was no stranger to Sandown in that sphere (form figures: 4214) and, before being switched to Lucy Wadham to go hurdling, had achieved a rating of 94.
Arqoob has been a bit of a slow learner perhaps over jumps but his last two starts have been more encouraging as he confirmed odds-on favouritism at Huntingdon and then definitely improved at Newbury last month when chasing home the progressive Nicky Henderson-trained Russian Ruler.
The winner went in again at Kempton on Monday and looks likely to be rated around 130 when reassessed. Arqoob, beaten four lengths receiving 6lb, now looks worthy of more than 114 which is also a very low rating when compared to his Flat mark given a difference of around 35lb between the two codes.
It could well be that he will never be quite as good over hurdles as on the Flat, but Bryony Frost’s mount does seem to be getting the hang of his new occupation and IMO can run a big race if the watering on top of rain hasn’t ruined the ground but who knows how it ride given this ‘IS’ Sandown??
Joe Dadancer has the potential to be a massive improver in handicaps. He was clear when he fell on his last sole start in Irish points and has progressed with each of his 4 hurdling runs, clear second at Lingfield before going one better at Southwell (2m, soft) last month, winning very takingly. Opening handicap mark demands a bit more but he has the potential for much better again and worth a saver I thought.
1:30 Haydock
SPLENDENT– 3/4 Pt Win @ 12/1 B.O.G generally
A 4 year old I feel will be one to follow, even if not today, hence win only.
He is very, very well handicapped on most of his lines of form and the 1st time tongue tie looks a shrewd move. Last 7 runners from the yard recorded form figures of 2,2,3,1,4,1,2 when doing so. Fallon rides this Course exceptionally well, with a 33% win SR in handicaps over C & D. Hopefully he settles so from a nice draw worth chancing.
2:15 Sandown
COOLVALLA– 3/4 Pt Each way @ 18/1 6 places Livescorebet, 16/1 6 places generally
MUSICAL SLAVE– 1/2 Pt Each way @ 22/1 5 places Bet365, 20/1 6 places generally
7 year olds have a great record in this race of late and the likeable, admirably consistent Coolvalla can continue his rapid improvement set to carry just 10st 3lb!
Chris Gordon. His prominent style of racing is well served to this track/race and the cherry on the cake was the stunning record of this trainer/jockey combo.
They have teamed up just 9 times in handicaps since December 2019, achieving a truly remarkable record of 7 wins from 9 runners!! (77.78 Win SR!) with the other 2 placing! (100%!) Hopefully the pair can extend that impressive sequence for us here!
Last years second, Musical Slave looks sure to put up another bold show off a lovely racing weight of 10st 2lb (same weight carried last year).
Needs to put the pulled up effort LTO behind him, but that came in totally unsuitable soft ground and undoubtedly the GROUND and this track are the massive keys to this horses chance/form.
On terrain determined as good to soft (tomorrows forecast ground) his form figures read a very impressive 4 wins from 5 runs! and his record at this track reads 1,2,3! A very decent back up selection at a good price IMO.
3:05 Leicester
DASHING ROGER– 3/4 Pt Win @ 33/1 Bet365, 18/1 B.O.G generally
Stone has a great record in handicaps at the track over this distance especially where he is 2 from 3 all time! Dashing Roger bolted up over C & D, thrashing some good rivals by 4 lengths on this Heavy ground. Atzeni is a good booking, he is back off that winning mark here of 88 so if, and it is a huge ‘IF’ he retains anything like his previous class 2 handicapping ability, he can go close or he blows out? Worth chancing IMO
3:45 Haydock
BOARDMAN– 3/4 Pt Each way @ 15/2 4 places Bet365 & BetUK B.O.G,7/1 William Hill, 13/2 places generally
Tipped LTO in the Lincoln, that form is working out brilliantly and he ran better than it looks on the book. He reserves his best for this track where he has a 50% Win SR including this very race last year. He has a great record racing around a bend (Doncaster straight mile not really his bag) and the early part of each flat turf season so it’s not hard for me to see a big run is in the offing, the only slight negative being the trainer’s form but he did bank in an 18/1 winner yesterday so hopefully the tide is turning?
4:35 Sandown
BOURBALI– 3/4 Pt Win @ 10/1 B.O.G generally
Loves this track (form figures 1,2), found the drop back to 2miles just too sharp when I tipped him LTO. I hope he gets out in front, if so he could take some catching