Good afternoon folks
A lovely winner to start the weekend, should have left alone Nomadic Empire given the stable form but why the jockey switch diagonally!! Still on we go.
A tricky day indeed tomorrow, just the one further selection, along with those already sent and their write up’s. Nothing further for Saturday.
5:00 Haydock
HECTIC – 1/2 Pt EW @ 18/1 4 places Skybet (Unibet go 4 but not priced so see & they boost), 20/1 generally
Tipped last time at Goodwood, ran too bad to be true after a wide trip. I am hoping that unique track didn’t suit as his previous form I explained when last tipped makes him look well in against these. Cut in the ground is the key IMO which he will get. Hannon is in great form and jockey Sean Levey has a cracking record in 7 furlong handicaps at the track so, although he definitely needs to firmly put that last run behind him, I am willing to chance him at such a ridiculous price with the 1st time blinkers another possible positive angle.
1:50 Sandown
MAKAROVA – 1/2 Pt Win @ 20/1 Skybet & Betvictor, 18/1 generally
LADY HAMANA – 1/2 Pt Win @ 18/1 Lads & Betvictor, 16/1 generally
The past 10 running’s it has paid to stay away from the Royal Ascot form in this. Fillies have a cracking record, as do C & D and last time out winners. Both these runners fit the bill and with their yards on fire (Ed Walker’s best EVER month & 5 of Burke’s last 6 have Won!), I will split stakes (Makarova defo owes me one!) on both these rapidly improving fillies in a tricky contest.
2:05 Haydock
MIDNIGHT LION – 1/2 Pt EW @ 15/1 4 places Boost Will Hill, 14/1 4 places generally
Surpassed his juvenile form when very good fourth of 8 in handicap at Doncaster (14.5f) on reappearance, finding the surface/track bias that day against him. He made no mistake in maiden company at Goodwood next time and some of his maiden runs last year was against a lot of these which makes him look very attractively treated against more fancied rivals in the betting than him.
Very much the type to keep on improving as his stamina is drawn out for his trainer who has won this with his father twice from just the six running’s to date. His sire, Nathaniel who himself bolted up by 9 lengths on his only previous start at this track, provided last year’s winner also so with stable stalwart Joe Fanning, his winning jockey, keeping the ride, this lightly weighted horse should go well.
2:25 Sandown
SILENT FILM – 1/2 Pt EW @ 14/1 4 places Bet365, 12/1 5 places & Will Hill, 12 & 11/1 generally
Ascot form has been a must for this and this horse wont mind a bit of cut. Ian Williams is a tremendous target trainer and this may have been his plan after giving him a pip-eopener LTO in a highly competitive handicap. He ran well there, has a nice draw and the booking of Buick looks the icing on the cake. They have a tremendous record together, especially in 1 mile handicaps and Buick knows this horse well from his early days spent with Godolphin so a big run is expected IMO.
3:15 Haydock
SCAMPI – 1/2 Pt EW @ 22/1 5 places Boost Will Hill, 20/1 5 places generally
Our old friend I missed at York, this could set up nicely for this smooth travelling sort. Strangely for an Heritage handicap, 5 & 6 year old’s have Won the past 6 renewals and this 5 year old son of Nayef (won here in Group company) is only one of a few to fit that bill. A coincidence? Maybe but so might be berthed in stall 2 (as he is) as that is where 3 of the last 7 winners have come from!
Andrew Balding is in superb form and has a cracking record at this track with his C & D handicappers. He has a 20% Win SR in the past years that improves to a stunning near 50% last 2 years and took this very race the season before last. Hopefully they don’t get too much rain, If not and he replicates his impressive York winning form, from just 4lbs higher than for that win should go very well!
4:25 Haydock
RAMAZAN – 1.5 Pt Win @ 9/2 boost William Hill, 100/30 generally OK
This horse looks primed for a very big run in this. 3 year old’s have won 2 of the 3 running’s to date and his form is very strong. There looks to be loads of pace on in which looks ideal and he looks nicely berthed in stall 5 to stalk and pounce late in the piece which is the picture of the race in my head. Third to an on-song Dark Thirty at York first time out, he was another who ran an eye-catching race at Royal Ascot where he led the stands side group two furlongs out in the Britannia before running out of steam.
The finish of that race was fought out by two potential Group horses in Docklands and New Endeavour on opposite sides, and Ramazan did extremely well to hold on for third in his group behind Docklands and the previous dual winner Surely Not.
The drop back to seven furlongs here is an obvious move and Oisin Orr’s mount, who won at Haydock over the straight six furlongs as a two-year-old, still appeals as reasonably treated especially on his third in a sales race over this trip at the Curragh last September which has been well boosted since.
Trainer Quote – He’s back to seven furlongs for this and I think it’s his trip. I don’t think he got home over a mile in the Britannia last time, which was my fear going into it. He looked like he was going to run a very big race two out.
Everything looks right for him here, a drop of rain won’t do him any harm either and he heads there in great form.