Good morning folks
Tough times at the moment on the flat, echoed by the thoughts of Paul Kealy & Simon Rowlands. We just DO NOT know what the going is which is ‘THE’ Massive factor in form!!
Picking for smooth moving flat horses on Good ground, the terrain turned near Heavy at the feature tracks, what chance? We tipsters do not have the luxury of waiting until near off time on the day so are hostage to fortune in so many ways. Who knows how the tracks will ride today with even more rain forecast. Will it come??
I feel these times more than most as you well know, but, 25 hugely successful years tells me things change and we have had a very profitable year to date
The one horse that broke my heart though yesterday was Majestic!! I had my biggest bet of the flat season to date (over £1000) each way, thinking his form, the gamble etc that no way could he finish outside the Top 6 at worst?? Still cannot believe he did. What the hell the excuses are I would love to know as horse he thrashed the last twice by the way came past and reversed form massively with him!
I pick horses for a damn good reason and this thorough research WILL NOT be lost going forward and will undoubtedly pay us back in time handsomely. Unfortunately, the day of selection as I said often things go wrong.
The likes of Dual Identity (drifted) hated the ground. He travelled like the very well handicapped horse he is but he has a potent turn of foot that was blunted and shaped well. Raatea would have gone close had he had Probe’s cover but he raced on the wing with no cover, as did Get Ahead who lost all chance at the start.
Marakova loomed dangerously and the Ed Walker runners are in need of their runs. BillyB shaped well and a definite tracker horse.
To compound a bad day, my tip and tracker horse Yacowlef went and won the last!
He was 2-1 overnight though and ended up a cracking 7/2.
Still, we have to move on and I have picked ground accordingly. Newmarket is renowned for drying out quickly so lets hope the showers materialise.
Two further selection are as below.
Back tomorrow with what looks like cautious plans for Chester next week.
Today is another day so we forge on!
2:25 Newmarket
CRACKOVIA– 1/2 Pt Each way @ 23/1 4 places Bet365, 25/1 3, 22/1 generally (18/1 4 places Skybet)
Superb breeding and this Ribblesdale entry won twice last summer and took minor honours in Listed races on the continent on her last two starts. Highly likely to stay beyond 1m on Pedigree and has among the best form in this field. Charlie Johnston has made a bright start taking over from his father and he sent out 2 winners this week and a cracking effort from a big pricer in yesterday’s Guineas.
We saw Saturday prominent racers make hay so this horse could steal this from the front under a master tactician with the high draw in 9 also a positive based on yesterday’s evidence??
2:05 Hamilton
WICKYWICKYWHEELS– 1 Pt Win @ 10/1 generally
An improving tipped LTO and was compromised by the draw and the tight Musselburgh track. Back at this track, where she has an astonishing 5 wins from 7 runs! And form figures over C & D of 1,1,2 beat favourite for this, Zimmerman, comprehensively last year so worth a 2nd chance now the Goldie yard are hitting it’s stride.
3:40 Newmarket
QUEEN ME– 1/2 Pt Each way @ 70/1 6 places Bet365, 75/1 5, 80/1 4 places, 66/1 4 places generally
MATILDA PICOTTE– 1/2 Pt Each way @ 55/1 4 places generally
Speculative plays, As with many of my horses, Queen Me has been tipped up by a good few judges.
Having raced over only six furlongs at two, and being out of a dam in Queen Kindly who was a sprinter who failed to stay in this very race, she has been dismissed on stamina grounds, but that looks a mistake on both her running style and other elements of her pedigree.
Crucially she’s by Dubawi, a strong stamina influence who has sired Guineas winners in Coroebus and Night Of Thunder, and he gives her a great chance of improving at three, while the way she ran on over six at York and Ayr at two is a clear hint she could be even better over this sort of trip.
That’s what could happen, but what we know about her isn’t bad, either. A superb neck second in the Sky Bet Lowther Stakes at York on just her second start, she beat Mawj by three lengths, a filly who is 12/1 for this race, and Dramatised, a Breeders’ Cup runner-up, by a bit more.
Beaten at 6/4 in a Listed race on her only start since the Lowther at Ayr last September, she travelled like the best filly in the field before being outpaced two from home, but she kept on well for a one-length third, again shaping like she needs further to show her best.
Ryan hasn’t run many horses in either Guineas over the years, but he did train 150/1 chance Glory Awaits to be second to Dawn Approach in the 2000 Guineas in 2013 and of course yesterday’s 125/1 shot who ran a cracker. He could well have another massive outsider here who could run a big race at crazy odds and worth a punt IMO.
Matilda ran really well LTO and rates top on my clock courtesy of her victory in a six furlong Listed event at this venue in October of last year. Second in a seven furlong Group 3 contest at Leopardstown on her return last month, the filly isn’t without hope on today’s step up in class, but will probably need to hang tough at the business end of this one mile trip.
1:50 Newmarket
TORCELLO– 1/2 Pt Each way @ 31/1 boost 5 places William Hill, 28/1 5, 25/1 6 places generally
Although now a nine-year-old and open to improvers, he was very well backed on his reappearance in an amateur riders at Doncaster after the rain fell and he got his favoured soft ground, but he didn’t get his own way in front and then stayed on the unfavoured far side in the straight.
A line can be put through that, especially as he usually needs at least a run to get himself straight, but he should be fit and firing for this race as he usually is on the Rowley Mile.
His record at this track is 1-9-1-5-1 and his wins came in handicaps off marks of 83 and 85 twice, so he’s got a chance here on his second run of the season off 87.
The worry is the big field, as he likes to dominate, but he is actually the obvious pace angle in the race and Joe Fanning, who has been having a fabulous year, has been booked for the job. He has reidden 3 times All Time on turf for this small yard gaining 1 winner & 2 lacers!
He looks a good fit for the horse and he won on him at this track in the May of 2021 thanks to a typically well-judged ride from the front – the only previous time he has ridden him