Good evening folks
Looks a toughish but good, highly competitive card tomorrow on the sand and it is what is is as a punting medium. I have put in the hours of work so one more selection for Lingfield on Saturday is below, along with a bonus tip from Navan. The ones already sent are below those with their attached write ups. Nothing further for Saturday.
2:35 Lingfield
LORD RIDDEFORD – 1/2 Pt EW 18/1 & 16 (drifting) 4 places generally
As with Plantadream, this brilliant grey is the veteran of the party aged 9 but he has shown he retains all his old enthusiasm and more importantly form in recent runs. Indeed, he bolted up at his beloved Goodwood in this Class of race back as recently as last August. His head to head record against nearly all of these is very good and he has been shaking most of them up in recent runs yet finds himself a lot, lot better off at the weights with them. It is the easing of his mark though that sealed the bet…When he has been rated 89, as he is tomorrow and below he has WON 9 races from 14 attempts with 2 further narrow 2nd defeats!!
He has won a listed contest over C & D and is nicely berthed in stall 3 to chase what looks a furious pace set-up on paper and if, and that is the only big if IMO, he can hold his position and tag onto their coattails, he can put up a bold show @ 18/1 which looks big for a jockey in cracking form who knows him inside out.
Quote
John Quinn, trainer: “He’s been running well and he likes Lingfield. He’s got a nice draw and he goes there with a chance.”
1:55 Navan
LORD ERSKINE – 3/4 Pt EW 14/1 8/1 4 places generally
Fairly prolific sort on the Flat and is 3-18 over hurdles and produced a very big run over C&D behind Harvard Guy last month. He travels very strongly and moved smoothly up to challenge his younger rival looking like the winner but off level weights the winner had just too much in reserve. He now finds himself a big looking 10lb better off for that 2l defeat and looks set for another big run here.
12:10 Lingfield
SEE YOU BOY – 3/4 Pt EW 14/1 Will Hill 4 places, 12/1 4 places generally
I was very taken with the way he won over C & D 3 runs back and if anywhere near that form should go close. The market has missed that IMO as on paper, his last 2 efforts are discouraging but I can see well past those. On both occasions he was drawn widest of all and due to him being a fast breaker from the stalls, he found himself trapped very wide with no cover, pulling very hard disputing the lead and having no chance from thereafter. He is drawn much better tomorrow to stalk and pounce and get cover and should get a very good toe into the race, hopefully settled tracking. Trainer Marco Botti is knocking in the winners but again, it is the jockey booking that puts the icing on the cake. Holly Doyle is excellent around this gaff and is in good form herself but she has ONLY ridden 6 horses in handicaps ALL TIME at this track, gaining 3 winners and another disqualified winner demoted to 2nd!!
I have a good picture in my head and you need that feel to be a good tipster and professional so hopefully that scenario above plays out and he runs amassive race at a big price for us!
12:50 Lingfield
BALON D’OR – 3/4 Pt Win 9/1 generally
Win only as first time out but this son of Kodiac, whose progeny excel at this track, won 1st time of asking on his racecourse debut as a 2 year old so he should be ready to go? He ran in some very classy races thereafter and showed speed to burn at Epsom, narrowly beaten by Bobsleigh (now rated 97) with Group winner Haatem (now rated 105) over a length further back!
He goes handicapping off just 85 so looks very well treated on that run and we know this is a speed favouring course. The trainer is in tremendous form, firing in 6 winners from his last 11 runners! And the booking of Jason Hart rounds the case off. They have teamed up just 9 times on the All Weather in the past 3 years and have knocked in 6 winners (66% Win SR!!) 7 placers, including the last 3.
All in all I thought well worth a punt.
2:00 Lingfield
PLANTADREAM – 3/4 Pt EW 9/1 Will Hill 5 places, (/1 Unibet 4, 8/1 5 places Skybet, 8/1 4 places generally
Tipped LTO, he cantered through the event and I thought he was the winner all the way, as no doubt you did? He quickened well and came with what looked a winning run and I still cannot believe he finished unplaced for us. He retains plenty of ability and has been dropped a further 1lb for that effort which is a bonus. He is back at his favourite haunt now though, boasting form figures of 1,2,2,2 over C & D. The trainer had her first winner in a long time recently so in this largish field, I hope/expect they go a decent clip. If so, I envisage to come from off the pace, wide and late with a strong hopefully winning challenge and surely a decent EW bet with the palce terms on offer.
3:10 Lingfield
DAYZEE – 3/4 Pt EW 16/1 Skybet 4 places, 17/1 Unibet boost, 16/1 3 places generally (may get bigger as drifting with some books)
A likeable, very consistent 4 year old filly, I feel she is being badly under estimated in this for some reason? She comfortably held Twirling who is being very well backed @ 4’s and under (no doubt down to the jockey booking) and although that was over 1 mile, Dayzee’s best form has come over this trip so IMO ther is no way she should be 4 times the price!! I guess that is down to the relatively little known trainer, but, his last 5 runners have produced the form-line of 2,2,2,2,1! The favourite does look dangerous but at 2/1 the value has long disappeared.
I like Dayzee’s prominent style of racing/tenacious way of racing over this trip at this track so with the last time out jockey staying aboard, I think she can go very well indeed!