Good evening folks
A very nice start to the weekend with Havaila winning on ground that looked atrocious.
I toyed with Datsalrightgino but found the Graded chase races hard to call at Prestbury Park and left him alone (old friend Fugitiv was on my radar also but place terms each race tricky) so with that, just two further selection are below, along with the ones already sent and their write up’s. Nothing more to follow.
12:20 Doncaster
EZMERELLDA – 3/4 Pt EW 18/1 Will Hill, 16/1 3 places generally
Taking on the Elliott hotpot, I think she can get closer to her this time than she did at Newbury and has lots of factors very much on her side this time around! That was Ezmerellda’s 1st ever outing over timber and she went well for a long way before tiring. She made no mistake next time out, here over C & D, fairly bolting up and indeed, the winner of that event has come on to win this race twice before! This race has only been in existence for 5 years and the wiley Alan King (who I have always liked with his runners at Donny) targets this good prize, winning it TWICE before from 3 runners!! This must have been this horses early season target so at a big price, a value bet IMO.
12:55 Doncaster
PUNCTUATION – 3/4 Pt Win 11/1 generally drifting
This ultra consistent performer has some strong form and is 5 from 12 over timber. He shaped very well in the Greatwood at Cheltenham last time and we know how strong and well that form is and has worked out!
The trainer/jock combo LOVE targetting hurdle races at this course. O’Brien is 3 from 6 over C & D (50% Win SR) with Brennan an outstanding 43% Win SR & a cracking 72% Place!! They are 2 winners & a 3rd from just 4 runners together. This is not a great race so with a big field/likely good gallop on, then if at his best, and he may have bigger targets, he must surely run a big race and win only the play as could blow out if the ground gets any quicker.
12:40 Cheltenham
RAILWAY HURRICANE – 1/2 Pt EW 20/1 Will Hill boost 4 places, 18/1 normal 16/1 4 places generally
A big price in this IMO, he has strong course form and always seems to run his race. His form ties in with the well backed Ginny’s Destiny & Es Perfecto (do like the latter and almost went with but price collapsed) is much better off at the weights and has arguably been unlucky with and could have finished in front of both but for bad luck. A smooth traveller, his trainer is mustard with his runners on these shores, in fact, 6 of his last 12 chasers at this track WON with 2 fallers both cantering looking likely to score!! The drying ground will be much more in his favour and the jockey rides the track well! No doubt he will come there travelling well on this horse and hopefully, for us, he gets his head back in front which is overdue IMO given his performances in good races.
1:15 Cheltenham
GRANDEUR D’AME – 3/4 Pt EW 11/1 4 places generally
This 8 year old has run the best races of his life on his last 2 outings and is very much an improving sort. He ran as well as could be expected tackling this class for the 1st time here on the Old course LTO when our tip Fugitiv just got the better of old foe Il Ridito. He was 3lb out of the handicap that day but gets to run off his proper mark this time and finds himself 8lbs better off with the Nicholls horse this time. A stong traveller, a berth behind the pace is what I want and if he runs anywhere near last time, on this stiffer New course, he must be on the premises at the very least.
3:15 Doncaster
SWEET WILL – 3/4 Pt Win @ 8/1 Bet365, 15/2 generally
TWOSHOTSOFTEQUILA – 3/4 Pt EW 18/1 Will Hill boost 6 places, 16/1 6 places generally
Sweet Will looks a plot job to me for a very, very shrewd Irish outfit that know the time of day winning big handicaps in England! Sweet Will is 2 from 2 at Doncaster and this prestigious race MUST have been his long term target. Win only the play though. The omitting of lots of the fences did for the strong travelling Twoshotsoftequila here over C & D LTO as jumping is very much this horses forte!
His previous win at this track, although in much lower class, was won in a very fast time and indeed faster than when his LTO effort was run like a flat race so with lots of pace assigned on in this, I can see him picking his way through smoothly to come with a very big challenge late in the piece to hopefully go mightily close!
3:35 Cheltenham
BOTOX HAS – 3/4 Pt EW 17/2 3 places generally
Doesn’t have much to find with these at his best, this horse likes Cheltenham and has form figures under the excellent jockey of 1,1,6!
He gets the 1st time headgear here and interestingly Moore reaches for the visor. He has done so very sparingly in the past, utilising the v1 just four times in the last three years on his hurdlers – with three of the four winning including a 14/1 chance. Botox Has also goes exceptionally well off the back of a break of 55 days or more, like tomorrow, recording the eye-watering form figures of 1,1,2,1,1,1!! when doing so.
A prominent racer, if the visor brings about just a smidgen of improvement, this prominent races goes very close here.