Good evening folks
I found the NH racing tough on the whole, especially the chases. Handicap hurdles I do best in so one more from that sphere, along with another from Newcastle are below, along with the ones already sent and the write ups. I had BICEP in mind for the 1st at Newcastle but wanted 6’s+ EW (4 places was a good bet). The price has collapsed now into 100/30 and he is up in class so passed over at that.
Nothing more for Saturday.
1:35 Aintree
BUSHYPARK – 1/2 Pt EW 25/1 generally
They’ll be coming home in instalments in this so with that in mind I reckon we should be on the lookout for a grizzled old chasing type with a load of heavy-ground form to their name (lots of similar older types have won this in the past 10 years so I thought this horse, carrying a very low weight could go well if ready to go.
Phil Kirby’s nine-year-old won the North Yorkshire Grand National at Catterick last season so stamina is his forte. He actually won a soft-ground Pertemps Qualifier at Haydock in February 2021 from 120, so this sort of test is clearly his bag and there’s a potential scenario in which he might just be the ‘last man standing’ here.
I like that he is the only front runner in the race (they do well over this trip over timber here) so he could make them all go from the front and also the booking of Sean Quinlan. He has ridden 3 winners from 7 rides for the stable over hurdles, which includes the last 3!! That suggests to me that this horse could go very well (we have had some stinker 1st time out runners which is always a concern) so with fitness taken on trust, worth chancing at the price IMO.
3:45 Newcastle
ONESMOOTHOPERATOR – 1/2 Pt EW 22/1 4 places generally
Doesn’t win very often which is the concern but he loves this track and races off a much reduced mark and should be a value each way play.
1:30 Newcastle
SOUND ANGELA – 3/4 Pt EW 7/1 places generally
Brings very solid course form to the table (bolted up by 4 lengths ONLY previous run here) and is one of two in this for Champion Stakes winning trainer Roger Varian, who has a stunning record with his runners here, especially over this trip (11 from 32 (38%SR), 19 placers) and the last 6 runners have produced the form line of 1,1,2,1,1,2!!.
Sound Angela is three from four on an all-weather surface and this mile and a quarter trip looks just right on this stiffish galloping track. She ran well in France last time out where she was given way too much to do away from where the action unfolded. I expect this long straight to bring out the best in her and she should go very close.
2:05 Newcastle
EMBRACE – 3/4 Pt Win 12/1 generally (BOG Corals)
Tipped the last twice, hopefully it’s 3rd time lucky now returned to the AW.
This one-time Classic is unbeaten on Tapeta (1-1 at Wolverhampton)
Her Newbury effort in a seven-furlong handicap towards the end of September was quite remarkable. If you recall, she travelled stylishly, made smooth headway and took up the runner to lead at the two-furlong pole, only to hang her chance away in the last half furlong. I was gutted on the day.
She still managed a close-up third behind Pearle D’or, who arguably could have won the Challenge Cup at Ascot had he been held onto a bit longer (or drawn closer to the stands), and it’s definitely form worth respecting.
Embrace was pitched back into Listed company when tipped again last time, and she was smahed in the betting to 8/1, but appeared to resent the return to Newmarket’s undulations and was ultimately brought home in her own time by Kevin Stott, picking off four rivals inside the final furlong from a long way back
She’s going to need to improve an awful lot on the bare form of that effort in this company but there are reasons to expect better, with the flatter track and synthetic surface hopefully far more to her liking.
Embrace is closely related to a bunch of winners, including several all-weather scorers, and it could be that she only really begins to fulfil her potential in this sphere. Win only as this is a tricky race.
3:32 Wincanton
OSTRAVA DU BERLAIS – 1/2 Pt EW 18/1 Bet365, 16/1 generally
Speculative and could blow out as form is very much unknown but worth chancing from the foot of the weigh tson a very tricky day, given the trainer is on fire and won a valuable handicap chase at Ascot last weekend with a similar sort. Venetia is renowned to be a mustard target trainer, especially in her favourite month of November. This month, she has had 6 winners from 12 runners and has a superb record with handicap debutants. As I say, hard to know what to fully expect but I like the booking of 5lb claimer Ned Fox as they have a fabulous near 40% Win strike rate ALL time in hurdles and NH Flat races and the last 2 won so worth a stab at a decent price.