Evening folks
Hopefully the racing beats the weather but a day not to go too mad IMO.
I found the price/value had long gone on a couple of others I fancied so on a day where, at tracks that throw up surprise results on this sort of ground, two further ‘out of the box’ selections that I often land are below, along with the ones already sent and their write ups. Nothing further for Saturday.
1:15 Sandown
FIRESTREAM – 3/4 Pt Win @ 16/1 generally
A speculative selection and could blow out given he has been off the track for 706 days but he has some excellent form/showed promise earlier in his career and is a fascinating runner. I watched his videos and found numerous reasons to think he can go well. Firstly, the shrewd trainer has kept him in training and looks to have targeted this ‘veterans’ race as his 1st start back which very, very often go to the youngest horses with 8 year old’s farming such said races of which he is one of.
Anthony Honeyball is another excellent trainer with his 1st time handicappers and I very much like the jockey booking. They are a perfect 1 from 1 ALL Time when teaming up at Sandown, winning that race with a similar type to Firestream. Honeyball doesn’t run many here and in fact has WON with his last 2 handicap runners!
Firestream races prominently, should relish the ground and finally his mother, Swincombe Flame, bolted up at this track on her only run in a Listed NH Flat race. As I said, he could badly need it so win only but did win off a break before so with a lot of question marks over the others, I thought worth a punt at the tasty odds on offer!
1:50 Sandown
CARBON KING – 1/2 Pt EW @ 30/1 Will Hill/Lads boosts, 28/1 3 places generally
Another selection that needs explaining but he is still only 8 and carries a lovely weight. Thrashed Jupiter Du Gite (well punted for this!) yet is 5 times the price!
When trained in Ireland he routed our old friend Buddy One (rated 154!) by 12 lengths from the front in a good quality handicap hurdle so the ability is clearly there!
The Evan Williams yard had been out of sorts but is renowned for getting one to ‘bounce back’ of a couple of poor runs and has hit form gaining 3 winners & 3 thirds from his last 8 runners! There looks to be a strong pace on in this (trainer stated he loved that when beating Jupiter Du Gite who was 11/10 that day) which should suit admirably and finally I like that Adam Wedge gets back in the saddle as the ONLY time he has ridden him over fences he won very well! So again, at a price, worth chancing IMO.
12:40 Sandown
XCITATIONS– 1.25 Pt Win @ 5/1 888Sport, 9/2 generally (may get BOG or bigger when all books priced up)
As I said when tipped last time, no doubt 2nd & 3rd time out is the time to catch this horse. Although carrying top weight (sign of the quality of this race), his mark has dropped to a generous looking 125 and again, over 2 miles from a mark of 128 and below he is 4 wins from 6. He bolted up in this race last year off a mark of 133 and trainer Pam Sly, since December 2018 has ONLY run this horse here 3 times and he WON twice, 1 from 1 for this jockey! Soft, stickier frosty ground is the only concern but I have to chance him again off an 8lb lower mark than last year and he should go very close.
3:15 Wincanton
NINTH LOCK– 3/4 Pt Win @ 15/2 Lads boost, 7/1 generally
A total unknown and could blow out but the trainer is mustard with his 1st time handicappers, achieving an unbelievable 50% Win SR with them!! This horse is unknown but I like he pitches him here as he go from the front and he ran Stayers Hurdle hope for us (tipped at Newbury when given a shocker) The Wallpark to ¾ of a length when trained in Ireland. When the jockey comes over sparingly to these shores they team up tremendously well so in a wide open race I thought worth chancing.
3:35 Sandown
SPIRITS BAY – 1 Pt Win @ 10/1 generally
ZAMBEZI FIX – 1/2 Pt EW @ 28/1 Will Hill boost, 25/1 normal & Unibet, 22/1 3 places generally
Spirits Bay looks to have been plotted for this after a very eye-catching run on seasonal debut at Cheltenham, form which is working out very well. He made a big, smooth move before fading on the run in. He has a cracking record right handed, the trainer/jockey have a cracking record here and he will relish the ground. There were bigger prices about midweek but still enough value to go with I thought win only as horses can badly blow out at this track on frosty ground.
Zambezi Fix likes this track and is probably more a placer but he is back off his last winning mark with a further 7lb off taking him to 114. I have been through the form of his handicap hurdle races (Kempton & here) and it is strong so at the price I thought it worth adding him into the mix given there are question marks over the favourites coming from mares races or maidens (hard to weigh up and no value IMO)